In my view the biggest threat to sustained enterprise growth is talent scarcity. This is
particularly true in the knowledge-based economies. Human capital is replacing
financial capital as the engine of economic prosperity and the yard stick that
leading organisations will be using to measure their future success. The
challenge is, of course, that real talent is already scarce and is going to get
a lot scarcer.
According to a new report prepared by the World Economic Forum worldwide Industries and countries
will require major increases of highly educated people in their workforces to
sustain economic growth. Demand for highly educated professionals, technicians
and managers will be particularly high in trade, transport and communications
industries.
Moreover, in the next two decades demand for professionals in manufacturing will peak at more
than 10 per cent in developing countries, exceeding four per cent across all
countries sampled (labour demand growth rates are compounded annually).
The report analyses projected talent shortages by 2020 and 2030 in 25 countries, 13 industries and
9 occupational clusters. The roots of the global talent risk include the widely
uneven quality of educational systems, erratic employability of the workers in
the Southern Hemisphere and demographic changes in the Northern Hemisphere,
where retirement of the baby boomers will result with an unprecedented talent
deficit.
In the United States, Germany, Canada and the United Kingdom, expected immigration and birth
rates will not offset the workforce losses caused by ageing populations.
This situation is no longer a mere talent mismatch. The scale of the predicted talent gap
requires concerted action, starting with – and going well beyond – removing
barriers to the mobility of talent. Great companies have already led changes to
talent management systems to incorporate mobility so that they can take
advantage of the competitive opportunities which are offered by the new
reality.

